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Why Florida will be a Solid Republican State in the Next 15 Years

(Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

In most Presidential Elections, Florida has always been a swing state. In the 2020 Presidential Election in Florida, Former President Trump (R-FL) won the state by 3.36%. Back in 2016 Trump also won Florida by 1.2%. In 2012 Former President Obama (D-IL) won the state by .88%. In 2008 Obama won it by 2.81%. Florida has been trending red in Presidential Elections dating back to the 2004 Presidential Election where Former President George W. Bush (R-TX) won Florida by 5.01%. 

The four of the “big” elections in Florida were all most recently won by Republicans, with the Governor being Ron DeSantis (R-FL), one US Senator being Rick Scott (R-FL), the other US Senator being Marco Rubio (R-FL), and in the 2020 Presidential Election, Donald Trump won the state. Trump improved his margin of victory in 33 of the 55 counties he won. He also picked up support in Democrat stronghold counties with Broward, Hillsborough, Palm Beach, Orange, and Osceola counties. The main reason why Florida could be a state where Republicans win it by 10%-15% consistently is because of Miami-Dade County. Miami-Dade County has always been known to be a Democratic safe county, wherein the 2016 Presidential Election Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) won Miami-Dade County by 29.6%. In the 2020 Presidential Election, President of the United States Joe Biden only won the county by only 7.3%. That is more than a 20% difference. Part of this problem for Democrats in the county is Miami-Dade’s high Hispanic population, which has favored Trump over several other Republicans. Also, another main reason why Miami-Dade County has shifted so much is that Joe Biden lost over 5,000 votes from Hillary Clinton’s numbers in the county in 2016, and Donald Trump gained almost 200,000 votes from his numbers in 2016. It’s any day now before Miami-Dade County votes for a Republican. 

By: Jacob Salvatore

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