The 2024 Presidential Election is just over two years away, and we already have a good idea of whom the GOP nominee is going to be. It’s obviously Former President Donald Trump and there are five clear reasons for this. Before I do list the reasons I am writing this article to say we should stop talking about the 2024 GOP primaries because it’s basically a lock that Trump is running.
THE FIRST REASON is, It seems whenever Trump makes a public appearance he hints at running again in 2024. He already told Sean Hannity he decided on running again in 2024. Trump told Hannity this in late JUNE 2021. Almost three years before the General election and two years before the primaries even start. Other reports have suggested that he was talked out of announcing his 2024 run in October. Donald Trump is a pretty ambitious man who knows what he is getting into, and he has even stated that he goes into things to win, and I don’t think Trump would run again if he thinks he would lose. Recent polling has him up nationally vs any democrat you could think of who would run in 2024. Now this is why I know Trump will run and this is the first reason, but the only thing holding him back is campaign finance laws. He does however always say that people will be very happy with an announcement he’ll be making soon whenever an interviewer asks him the 2024 Question.
THE SECOND REASON is, the GOP is fully behind Trump. Only one poll has had him losing in the GOP presidential primaries and that was to Ron DeSantis by two points. You could argue at the time that poll was taken Trump was at his lowest because this was after the Capital attack and after the second Impeachment. Besides, that is only one poll that has DeSantis beating Trump by two in the primaries, he is up in every poll imaginable and is heavily favored by the GOP. 86% of the GOP finds him favorable while only 10% does not. 67% of the GOP wants him to run again and only 29% of the GOP does not. Trump’s hold on the GOP is stronger than people think and this is the data to back it up, even his rivals such as Mitt Romney say that he has the nomination if he wants it. Mitt Romney obviously knows that if he runs against Trump or if anyone else does they be obliterated by him in the Primaries. Pence knows this, DeSantis knows this, and even Trump knows this himself. His polling average vs other primary opponents such as DeSantis and Pence is at 60%.
THE THIRD REASON is, Trump is rebuilding the GOP to fit his interests and beliefs. He is heavily relying upon that he could clean house and get a good faction of Republicans that could primary “Rinos” in the house, the senate, and some governorships, so he could advance an America first agenda that he could not in his first term with lots of Senate Republicans and House Republicans that did not want to pass legislation that was associated with the key tenets of Trumpism. All in All, Trump does not want more liberal republicans and “Neocons” in congress if he wins in 2024 to halt his agenda. Trump has endorsed Kelly Tshibaka in Alaska to primary Senator Lisa Murkowski and Trump is doing this for a reason. This reason is that Murkowski is on the more moderate side of the GOP and voted to impeach him in 2021. These two things are the main factors on whether Trump will endorse you or your opponent. He has also endorsed Harriet Hageman in Wyoming to Primary Liz Cheney a Trump rival and has forced three republicans to retire, all of which are “Rinos” in President Trump’s eyes. It seems that Trump is trying to move the party more to the Right and away from being more liberal with the views of McCain and Bush. A few endorsements that show this is the endorsement of Joe Kent, Mo Brooks, Blake Masters(will be announced), Herschel Walker, David Purdue, Kari Lake, Paul Gosar, Lauren Bobert, and Dan Patrick to name a few. He is clearly rebuilding the party in his own favor, so he could pass any legislation if he gets into the presidency in 2024.
THE FOURTH REASON is, So many potential 2024 Presidential candidates are playing the “if Trump runs card”. Nikki Haley, Ted Cruz, Ron DeSantis, and Tom Cotton are just a few people I could name that have toyed with running for president but WILL NOT RUN IF TRUMP RUNS. The only people crazy enough to run are the “Rinos” and Chris Christie. All due respect but these people wouldn’t even get 3% against Trump, ask Bill Wield. Also, Chris Christie is way past his political prime and if he seized it he would have run in 2012. So many people will play the if Trump runs card and many people will continue because they know if they do run against him, they will be destroyed, so there is no use in running.
THE FIFTH REASON is, Trumpism is still on the rise and Donald Trump will seize this opportunity while it’s at its height. No one else is Trump and can execute Trumpism as well as him and that’s why no one might not even bother to challenge him in 2024 just based on the fact that he is Donald Trump and his ideology is on the rise, and it keeps on growing while other ideologies in the GOP are dying off quicker and quicker.
These are the five reasons why Donald Trump will run in 2024 and why we should not even question the 2024 primaries because it’s just a waste of time. The real test for Trump is if he can pull off a Grover Cleveland and beat whoever the democrats put up.
By: Santino Licavoli